Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:37:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3975…8475 sports 9 markets active 18h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-39%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$73
other 6% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-48.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -43.0% -48.4% 33% 33% -49.5%
≤30d 9 -43.0% -48.4% 33% 33% -49.5%
≤90d 9 -43.0% -48.4% 33% 33% -49.5%
all 9 -43.0% -48.4% 33% 33% -49.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.4% 33% -49.5%
10% -53.4% 33% -54.3%
15% -57.9% 22% -58.7%
20% -62.0% 22% -62.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$21 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $32 +$26 +82%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $11 +$11 +102%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $21 +$6 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $11 17h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $32 17h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $21 25h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $42 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $11 27h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 62¢ $42 27h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 28h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $21 28h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records