Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:31:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
39 0x3975…2588 sports 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$94 (-4%) realized −$89 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$228
14 days+$460
30 days+$564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$523
other 30% −$559
world 10% −$7
crypto 2% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +3.7% -6.2% 45% 45% +21.7%
≤30d 22 +6.2% -4.0% 45% 45% +25.1%
≤90d 34 -9.7% -18.3% 41% 38% -8.6%
all 35 -11.0% -19.5% 40% 37% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 37% -9.6%
10% -27.2% 37% -18.3%
15% -34.2% 34% -26.1%
20% -40.7% 34% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$53 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$89
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)35 / 38
History coverage143d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+23%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 23 $102 +$111 +109%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $101 −$52 -52%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $41 −$20 -48%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 +$42 +82%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$45 +89%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $51 −$24 -47%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $152 +$141 +93%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$12 -59%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$86 +170%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $152 +$196 +128%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $101 −$30 -29%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $12 −$12 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 04 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 +$79 +78%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 24 $126 +$185 +147%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $121 −$121 -100%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Apr 29 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $78 −$76 -98%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Apr 29 $89 −$11 -12%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Busan: Rio Noguchi vs Coleman Wong Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 14 $100 +$30 +30%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $50 +$40 +79%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Apr 12 $234 −$234 -100%
Delray Beach Open: Coleman Wong vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $100 −$59 -59%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 12 $68 +$60 +89%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Feb 28 $50 −$28 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway to score first vs. Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $213 1h
Norway to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 27¢ $49 3h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 13h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $21 20h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $21 20h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 34h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $92 44h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 45h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 2d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 42¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals SELL Yes 22¢ $27 3d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $293 3d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 74¢ $101 3d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $51 3d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 32¢ $51 3d
Declan Rice: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $21 5d
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals SELL Yes 9¢ $8 5d
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $20 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $137 8d
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 9d
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $348 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 30¢ $51 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $101 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.24 · official $65.24 (match) · 85 history records