Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3973…acd9 crypto 868 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$777 (-20%) realized −$777 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%429W / 439L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$245
14 days−$408
30 days−$520
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$678
other 20% −$167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 320 -19.0% -26.7% 57% 57% -26.2%
≤30d 662 -16.4% -24.4% 54% 52% -26.3%
≤90d 868 -17.7% -25.6% 49% 48% -29.1%
all 868 -17.7% -25.6% 49% 48% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.6% 48% -29.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.7% 36% -35.9%
15% -39.2% 22% -42.1%
20% -45.2% 15% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$777
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses429 / 439
Open positions0
Markets (closed)868 / 868
History coverage36d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 868 Trades
no open positions (88 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 -4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 -4%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +27%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -75%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$2 -19%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +62%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +67%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -10%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +166%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +31%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +30%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +30%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +181%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +18%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +27%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +59%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 19m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 39m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 44m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $0 44m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 44m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $6 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.68 · official $0.00 (match) · 2023 history records