Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3970…f56b weather 914 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (292 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,468 (+5%) realized +$2,557 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate97%850W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day291.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$173
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (292 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 783 +1.3% -8.4% 97% 10% -9.0%
≤30d 875 +1.5% -8.2% 97% 9% -9.1%
≤90d 875 +1.5% -8.2% 97% 9% -9.1%
all 875 +1.5% -8.2% 97% 9% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover291.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 9% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 1% -17.8%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$26 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,153
Realized+$2,557
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses850 / 25
Open positions41
Markets (closed)875 / 914
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$57
Trades / day291.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 875 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $264 $265 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $145 $146 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $96 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $92 $95 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? No 92¢ 97¢ $68 $72 +$4 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? No 88¢ 100¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? No 89¢ 92¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? No 86¢ 90¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? No 67¢ 100¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? No 67¢ 100¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? No 83¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$2 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? No 90¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17? No 91¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? No 90¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? No 90¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $129 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $9 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $88 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $13 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $180 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $161 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $208 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $149 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Jun 17 $79 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $271 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$8 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $166 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $69 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $51 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$8 -86%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $279 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $208 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 20m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $0 23m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 54m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $23 56m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $68 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $97 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $250 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 70¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $17 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 72¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $13 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $106 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $30 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $30 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,153.31 · official $1,152.98 (match) · 3500 history records