Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:49:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
39 0x396f…7f78 other 202 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$20,277 (+4%) realized +$23,420 · open −$3,143
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate73%140W / 52L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$2,394per market
Trades / day45.1pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$8,095now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$909
7 days+$4,803
14 days+$654
30 days+$7,808
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$154
world 31% +$7,785
other 18% +$4,332
crypto 9% −$4,956
tech 0% +$32
sports 0% +$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +2.2% -7.5% 73% 41% -5.5%
≤30d 127 +20.5% +9.1% 73% 31% -7.5%
≤90d 192 +16.6% +5.5% 73% 33% -7.4%
all 192 +16.6% +5.5% 73% 33% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.5% 33% -7.4%
10% -4.6% 23% -16.3%
15% ← realistic here -13.8% 15% -24.4%
20% -22.2% 7% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$1,803) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$194 vs −$344 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$8,095
Realized+$23,420
Unrealized−$3,143
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses140 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions8
Markets (closed)192 / 202
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$2,394
Trades / day45.1
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5,472 $5,492 +$19 (+0%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,974 $1,984 +$10 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $285 $282 −$3 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 32¢ 1¢ $3,220 $145 −$3,075 (-95%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $136 $115 −$21 (-15%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? No 10¢ 12¢ $50 $58 +$9 (+17%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Yes 20¢ 4¢ $100 $18 −$82 (-82%)
Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 350.0k by June 30? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $6,468 +$11 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $200 +$300 +150%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $201 +$80 +40%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $322 −$295 -92%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $2,693 +$677 +25%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $421 +$67 +16%
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -98%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $972 +$3 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $154 +$46 +30%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $1,686 −$6 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $11 +$3 +23%
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $5,741 +$473 +8%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $819 −$654 -80%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $910 +$87 +10%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,967 +$164 +8%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $4,995 +$5 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $12,753 +$1,003 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $730 −$10 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $5,182 +$963 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $9,435 +$1,088 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 14 $830 −$10 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $320 −$20 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $160 +$21 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $222 +$88 +40%
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $32 −$30 -94%
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $352 +$85 +24%
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n Jun 13 $274 +$69 +25%
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 10+ times during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $37 +$8 +21%
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 5+ times during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $119 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 10+ times during Jun 13 $11 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Chocolate" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $257 +$8 +3%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $505 +$101 +20%
Will MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube v Jun 13 $111 +$10 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $696 +$64 +9%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $8,222 +$4,003 +49%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $40,262 −$3,548 -9%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 10 $1,365 +$187 +14%
Will Tim Cook say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Apple W Jun 08 $720 −$49 -7%
Will Tim Cook say "Powerful" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June Jun 08 $518 +$5 +1%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $7,102 +$123 +2%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 08 $465 +$52 +11%
Will "Jake Bell" win Tony Honors for Excellence in the Theatre at the Jun 08 $0 $0 -5%
Will "André Bishop" win Lifetime Achievement in the Theatre at the 202 Jun 08 $69 +$4 +6%
Will "1/52 Project" win Tony Honors for Excellence in the Theatre at t Jun 08 $432 +$33 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $6,237 +$63 +1%
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30? Jun 05 $371 +$29 +8%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $72,696 $0 +0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $2,726 +$388 +14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $22,939 −$4,984 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $192 8m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $433 9m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $625 9m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 60¢ $3 41m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $622 41m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 60¢ $297 41m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 40¢ $200 44m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 23¢ $0 45m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 23¢ $1 45m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 23¢ $1 45m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 20¢ $1 46m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 20¢ $0 46m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 20¢ $1 46m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 16¢ $62 57m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 16¢ $17 57m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $608 58m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 20¢ $200 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 30¢ $2 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 30¢ $2 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 30¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 30¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 30¢ $14 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 30¢ $19 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 30¢ $2 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 30¢ $2 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 30¢ $2 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 30¢ $2 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 30¢ $4 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 15¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 15¢ $98 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,095.14 · official $8,095.24 (match) · 3500 history records