Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x396d…70e4 other 240 markets active 0h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 231L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$20
14 days−$31
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$49
sports 24% −$19
politics 8% −$6
culture 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$4
economics 5% −$6
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 170 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 239 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)239 / 240
History coverage134d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $296 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $203 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $338 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $575 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 17 $269 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $291 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $367 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $325 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $489 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $450 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $755 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $301 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $345 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $121 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $313 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 13 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $485 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $225 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $135 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 11 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $402 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $338 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $71 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $789 −$3 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $801 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $138 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 04 $271 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $207 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $151 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $533 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 27m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 2h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 4h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 6h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 7h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 9h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 13h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 15h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 17h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 19h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 20h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 22h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 23h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 25h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 25h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 26h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $58 29h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $58 31h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 32h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 34h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 38h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 40h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 41h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 43h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.81 · official $56.81 (match) · 1391 history records