Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:19:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x396d…aa6d other 20 markets active 3h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%3W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% $0
politics 29% $0
sports 10% $0
crypto 10% $0
economics 5% $0
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -0.0% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
all 20 -0.0% -9.5% 15% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses3 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage109d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $101 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $203 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $101 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $102 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $102 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $102 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $102 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 14 $102 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 17 $103 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $103 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $103 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 04 $103 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $103 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 23 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $103 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $103 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 12 $103 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 10 $103 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 05 $103 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $101 2h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $101 16h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $101 10d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $101 12d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $101 13d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $101 13d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $101 23d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $102 23d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $102 25d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 25d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $102 30d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $102 30d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $102 33d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 33d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $102 35d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $102 38d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $102 38d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $102 42d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $82 43d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 43d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $103 65d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $103 65d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 68d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 69d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $103 73d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $103 74d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 100¢ $103 77d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $1 77d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $64 77d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $38 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records