Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:29:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

39 0x396b…bd2c other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$1,192 (+25%) realized +$1,270 · open −$78

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip

Net edge-7%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate55%12W / 10L

Drawdown32%max

Avg bet$203per market

Trades / day1.4pace

Fees−$12est.

Kalshi-fit35%portable

Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$105

7 days−$132

14 days+$1,095

30 days+$1,153

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)-7.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+10.4%	-0.1%	50%	50%	-18.3%
≤30d	22	+2.8%	-7.0%	55%	55%	+13.4%
≤90d	22	+2.8%	-7.0%	55%	55%	+13.4%
all	22	+2.8%	-7.0%	55%	55%	+13.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-7.0%	55%	+13.4%
10%	-15.9%	55%	+2.5%
15%	-24.0%	55%	-7.4%
20%	-31.4%	41%	-16.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 48% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -8% → late +14% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$179 vs −$99 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage

Net worth$22

Realized+$1,270

Unrealized−$78

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses12 / 10

Est. fees paid−$12

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage16d

Avg bet$203

Trades / day1.4

Drawdown32%

Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	25¢	6¢	$100	$22	−$78 (-78%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$51	+$105	+206%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Jun 26	$150	+$101	+67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$456	−$450	-99%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)	Jun 24	$295	+$310	+105%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$102	−$100	-98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	Jun 24	$102	−$100	-98%
Spread: England (-1.5)	Jun 23	$85	−$83	-98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$51	+$77	+152%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$51	+$37	+73%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$30	−$30	-98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$2,169	+$1,036	+48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$505	+$264	+52%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$32	−$31	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$84	+$79	+93%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$56	+$28	+50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$102	−$100	-98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5	Jun 14	$30	−$30	-98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$51	+$31	+62%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$51	+$56	+109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$50	+$22	+44%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	25¢	$102	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	32¢	$51	47h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	59¢	$150	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	59¢	$456	2d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)	BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina	48¢	$295	3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	39¢	$102	3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	49¢	$102	3d
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY England	33¢	$85	4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	39¢	$51	5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	57¢	$51	6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	45¢	$30	6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	65¢	$505	7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$2,169	7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	38¢	$51	9d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$32	10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	51¢	$84	10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$56	11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	13d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5	BUY Under	45¢	$30	13d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	61¢	$51	14d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$20	14d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY No	47¢	$51	15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$50	16d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.00 · official $22.00 (match) · 35 history records