Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:59:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
39 0x3968…85b5 sports 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$611 (+24%) realized +$611 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%73W / 45L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$221
14 days+$557
30 days+$579
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$392
other 43% +$165
world 3% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +4.4% -5.6% 56% 46% +2.3%
≤30d 118 +41.0% +27.5% 62% 54% +10.8%
≤90d 118 +41.0% +27.5% 62% 54% +10.8%
all 118 +41.0% +27.5% 62% 54% +10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.5% 54% +10.8%
10% +15.3% 40% +0.2%
15% +4.2% 29% -9.5%
20% -6.0% 20% -18.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +74% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.22 per $1 lost it wins $3.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$611
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses73 / 45
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)118 / 118
History coverage15d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 118 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $34 +$17 +49%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $34 +$25 +74%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $34 +$17 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $34 −$15 -44%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? Jun 19 $34 +$10 +30%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $33 +$12 +35%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $34 +$29 +88%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $34 +$17 +51%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 +$4 +12%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $34 −$3 -10%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $34 −$2 -7%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $34 $0 -1%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $34 −$1 -4%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $33 +$12 +34%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $34 +$11 +31%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $34 +$4 +13%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $33 +$5 +14%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $34 +$15 +44%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $34 −$31 -90%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $17 +$11 +68%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $33 −$1 -2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $0 $0 -98%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $34 +$12 +35%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $33 +$40 +121%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $33 +$7 +20%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Slovenia vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
CD Castellón leading at halftime? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 −$33 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $67 +$77 +115%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $33 +$28 +84%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $33 +$3 +9%
Thor Akureyri vs. IBV Vestmannaeyjar: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $34 +$9 +26%
Will Thor Akureyri win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 +$6 +19%
Will Egersunds IK win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 −$2 -7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $34 −$6 -17%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $33 −$1 -2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $34 −$13 -37%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $34 −$2 -6%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $34 −$4 -12%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $34 −$19 -56%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 −$1 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 −$1 -2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $34 $0 -1%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $34 +$34 +100%
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $67 +$9 +13%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $34 +$18 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 51¢ $50 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $34 1h
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 90¢ $59 3h
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 51¢ $34 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 68¢ $51 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $34 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 2¢ $19 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 3¢ $34 22h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 66¢ $44 42h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 50¢ $34 42h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL Yes 86¢ $43 44h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL Yes 86¢ $2 44h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $33 44h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 84¢ $63 46h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 44¢ $34 46h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? SELL Yes 31¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $34 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL No 91¢ $38 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $34 2d
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 33¢ $31 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $31 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $34 2d
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $34 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $33 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 76¢ $32 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 82¢ $34 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 78¢ $34 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 75¢ $45 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 55¢ $33 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 68¢ $42 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 291 history records