Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:26:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3968…0971 crypto 91 markets active 2d ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$259 (-7%) realized −$250 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate28%25W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$37
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$18
crypto 36% −$128
sports 9% −$6
other 5% −$94
economics 1% −$41
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -21.6% -29.1% 39% 33% -17.4%
≤30d 23 +1.6% -8.1% 43% 39% -9.7%
≤90d 27 -10.2% -18.7% 37% 33% -10.0%
all 88 -22.1% -29.5% 28% 19% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 19% -15.8%
10% -36.2% 16% -23.8%
15% -42.4% 15% -31.2%
20% -48.0% 11% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$250
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses25 / 63
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)88 / 91
History coverage242d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 8¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-65%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 32¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Yes 38¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$10 -50%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$26 +86%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$27 +134%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $50 +$4 +9%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 06 $42 −$6 -14%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Jun 05 $1 $0 +12%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Jun 05 $1,905 −$30 -2%
Will Trump say "Proxy" or "Hezbollah" during Address to the Nation? Jun 05 $3 +$7 +233%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $31 +$61 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 09 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 1? Feb 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will regain win fl0m's Mythical LAN? Feb 27 $4 −$2 -50%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 25 $20 −$8 -40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Jan 23 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 07 $100 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 07 $100 −$50 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 07 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 07 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 07 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 07 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 07 $200 −$34 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jan 07 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 07 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jan 07 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jan 07 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Jan 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? Jan 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 30 $80 −$74 -92%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by January 31? Dec 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $10 37h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL No 78¢ $10 37h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $10 37h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 33¢ $10 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $10 37h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $10 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $10 37h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $10 37h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $10 37h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 56¢ $10 39h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $40 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $20 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $30 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $40 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $18 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL No 95¢ $55 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL No 74¢ $29 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $30 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $50 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL No 99¢ $72 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $50 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 31¢ $41 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 41¢ $36 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 44¢ $42 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? SELL Yes 99¢ $93 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.16 · official $4.16 (match) · 239 history records