Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
39 0x3966…868d other 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$13
politics 39% −$12
economics 4% −$1
sports 4% +$12
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 94 -1.4% -10.8% 2% 2% -9.6%
all 115 +2.0% -7.7% 8% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 8% -9.6%
10% -16.6% 7% -18.2%
15% -24.6% 5% -26.1%
20% -32.0% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×10.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 106
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage118d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $235 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $242 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $205 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $31 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $24 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $232 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $223 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $181 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 17 $179 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $699 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 15 $189 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 14 $182 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $166 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $170 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $166 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $232 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $235 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $238 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $194 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $199 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $219 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $223 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $331 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $428 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $223 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $463 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $178 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 21 $233 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $166 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $239 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $247 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $178 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $194 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $212 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $195 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 19 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $228 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $221 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 23h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 27h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 28h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 3d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 3d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 5d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 9d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 9d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 10d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 12d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 13d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 14d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 16d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 16d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 16d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 17d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $22 17d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 17d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 18d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 18d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $232 25d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $232 31d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $223 33d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $223 33d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $181 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.98 · official $37.98 (match) · 330 history records