Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:40:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3965…8163 world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate59%16W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$1
other 28% −$1
crypto 6% $0
sports 4% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 62% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 14 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 14 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
all 27 -6.1% -15.1% 59% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 4% -9.5%
10% -23.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -30.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses16 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage470d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $27 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $13 $0 +1%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $2 $0 +16%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Mar 28? Mar 31 $13 $0 +2%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? Mar 22 $15 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $11 $0 +2%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 9-11m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Mar 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 17 $15 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $31 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $31 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $28 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $27 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $12 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $16 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $27 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $7 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $20 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $14 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $13 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $12 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $14 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $27 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $30 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $30 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $22 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $27 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $1 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $1 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $10 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $10 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $13 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $16 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $30 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records