Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:15:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x395e…34c0 crypto 247 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$252 (-10%) realized −$252 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate24%58W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 24% −$16
other 24% −$31
sports 16% −$89
finance 14% −$41
world 9% −$80
politics 7% −$20
weather 3% −$13
tech 3% −$15
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -31.2% -37.7% 26% 19% -25.8%
≤30d 78 +2.7% -7.0% 35% 32% -12.3%
≤90d 245 -1.9% -11.2% 24% 21% -21.9%
all 245 -1.9% -11.2% 24% 21% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 21% -21.9%
10% -19.7% 20% -29.3%
15% -27.5% 19% -36.2%
20% -34.6% 19% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$252
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses58 / 187
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)245 / 247
History coverage80d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$9 +407%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 13 $46 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 −$4 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 26 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 26 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 26 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 26 $3 −$3 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 26 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 26 $1 +$4 +343%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 26 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 25 $2 +$4 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 24 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 24 $4 +$7 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 2¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 31¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 37¢ $18 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June SELL No 47¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 47¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? SELL Yes 89¢ $44 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 4d
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.55 · official $49.55 (match) · 830 history records