Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:48:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
39 0x395e…12aa other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 608d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$77 (+0%) realized +$77 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate27%20W / 53L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 71% −$14
politics 14% −$7
other 9% +$3
sports 3% +$92
crypto 2% +$2
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 +5.9% -4.1% 12% 6% -8.3%
≤90d 56 +6.9% -3.2% 25% 20% -8.8%
all 73 +8.5% -1.8% 27% 19% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 19% -9.2%
10% -11.2% 19% -17.9%
15% -19.8% 19% -25.8%
20% -27.6% 18% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×4.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

608d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses20 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage608d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $92 $92 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $171 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $10 +$10 +97%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $30 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $29 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $132 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 11 $139 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $131 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $133 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $129 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 06 $54 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $142 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $145 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $141 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $139 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $275 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 24 $137 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $146 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $277 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 17 $143 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $145 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $135 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $135 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $137 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 13 $6 +$4 +62%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 13 $7 +$12 +165%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $13 +$10 +75%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $4 +$6 +146%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 06 $14 −$14 -100%
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. Utah Valley Wolverines Apr 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: North Carolina Tar Heels (-2.5) Apr 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Avalanche vs. Kraken Apr 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Celtics vs. Hawks Apr 06 $22 +$20 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $32 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $92 36h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $29 42h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 47h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 4d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 4d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 5d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 5d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $30 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 8d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $10 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 9d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 15d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 16d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 17d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 17d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 17d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 17d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 23d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 24d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 24d
Will Solana reach $160 in May? BUY No 100¢ $60 27d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $132 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.22 · official $92.22 (match) · 284 history records