Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:54:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x395b…896a world 84 markets active 5h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate30%25W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days−$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$4
other 23% +$1
politics 22% $0
sports 5% −$4
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +7.2% -3.0% 57% 14% -8.6%
≤30d 32 +2.9% -6.9% 38% 12% -9.1%
≤90d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 28% 6% -9.4%
all 82 -0.8% -10.2% 30% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 5% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses25 / 57
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)82 / 84
History coverage466d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $95 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +50%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $29 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $70 −$5 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $45 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $20 −$1 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $71 +$3 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $32 −$3 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $43 +$5 +11%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $51 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $16 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $2 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats May 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $38 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $50 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $76 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $68 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 14 $43 $0 +1%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $32 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $2 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $18 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $20 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $47 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $47 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $47 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $48 16h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $8 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $44 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $40 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $40 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $29 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.23 · official $0.00 (match) · 326 history records