Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:48:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3959…5232 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+7%) realized +$22 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$9
other 38% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -15.5% -23.6% 33% 33% -0.7%
≤30d 6 -15.5% -23.6% 33% 33% -0.7%
≤90d 6 -15.5% -23.6% 33% 33% -0.7%
all 6 -15.5% -23.6% 33% 33% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 33% -0.7%
10% -30.9% 33% -10.2%
15% -37.6% 33% -18.9%
20% -43.7% 33% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$7 · ×3.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $68 $66 −$1 (-2%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 63¢ 60¢ $32 $30 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $110 −$10 -10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 +$18 +58%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $12 −$6 -46%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$27 +105%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 41m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $91 45m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $32 47m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 17¢ $8 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 84¢ $25 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 84¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $33 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $49 23h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 24h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $31 25h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $52 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.74 · official $96.74 (match) · 15 history records