Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:19:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x3959…a7f8
sports · 130 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$92 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$80 · open +$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$124
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses50 / 52
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions28
Markets (closed)102 / 130
History coverage537d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 28 History 102 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$0
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 31¢ 96¢ $7 $22 +$15 (+209%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 10¢ 19¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+83%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 54¢ 65¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 30¢ 22¢ $9 $6 −$2 (-26%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 60¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 54¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? No 76¢ 72¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled? Yes 60¢ 50¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? No 49¢ 28¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-42%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 71¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 68¢ 70¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-49%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +62%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $24 −$1 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 +$4 +69%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +119%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $5 +$25 +452%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +134%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 +$3 +52%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 13 $6 +$2 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +38%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $6 +$12 +201%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $15 −$1 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +41%
Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +42%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +24%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $4 +$4 +100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -3%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $27 −$2 -7%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $4 −$1 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $7 −$1 -16%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $7 −$2 -23%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $6 +$2 +27%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $6 +$2 +39%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 69% +$105
other 11% +$6
economics 9% −$1
world 8% −$23
politics 3% +$13
finance 0% −$13
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $3 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 63¢ $3 42m
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 47m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $4 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 65¢ $3 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 82¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $3 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 71¢ $4 4h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 60¢ $3 4h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 60¢ $3 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 67¢ $7 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 54¢ $3 8h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 19¢ $3 8h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 37¢ $0 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 54¢ $3 8h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 36¢ $5 8h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 10h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 53¢ $3 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 52¢ $3 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 44¢ $4 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 35¢ $4 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 54¢ $3 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 31¢ $3 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 60¢ $3 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 24¢ $1 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 26¢ $4 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -0.4% -9.9% 44% 42% -9.4%
≤30d 71 -3.1% -12.3% 45% 42% -11.2%
≤90d 76 +3.0% -6.8% 47% 45% +7.4%
all 102 +4.2% -5.7% 49% 42% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 42% -7.0%
10% -14.8% 36% -15.9%
15% -23.0% 25% -24.0%
20% -30.5% 19% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.42 · official $124.27 (match) · 429 history records