Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3958…2152 other 327 markets active 1d ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$57 (-2%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate38%123W / 202L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$18
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$63
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -30.2% -36.8% 33% 33% -44.5%
≤30d 33 +7.1% -3.1% 45% 42% -13.9%
≤90d 177 -10.2% -18.7% 34% 29% -14.1%
all 325 -7.1% -16.0% 38% 29% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 29% -11.2%
10% -24.0% 22% -19.7%
15% -31.3% 18% -27.5%
20% -38.1% 15% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses123 / 202
Open positions2
Markets (closed)325 / 327
History coverage148d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 325 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $9 −$5 -57%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$4 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +73%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 +$5 +108%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -87%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $3 +$10 +322%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $11 −$5 -45%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $11 −$2 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? May 31 $4 $0 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $5 +$6 +116%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 29 $0 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $5 −$2 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 26 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 26 $3 −$1 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $19 +$3 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $3 $0 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 26 $4 +$2 +45%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 25 $1 +$1 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $3 +$4 +138%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $3 −$1 -38%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $1 $0 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? May 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? May 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 15 $3 +$3 +106%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 15 $6 +$3 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 14 $3 +$6 +246%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $3 $0 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 12 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 12 $4 +$2 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 12 $1 $0 -15%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $2 +$6 +266%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $6 −$3 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $5 −$4 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 09 $2 −$1 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 32h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 35h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $9 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $9 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 6d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 6d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 7d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $3 9d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 10d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 10d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 10d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.60 · official $11.60 (match) · 1385 history records