Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:37:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
39 0x3956…bf6c crypto 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
Total PnL +$42 (+12%) realized +$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%57W / 58L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days−$117
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$15
sports 37% +$39
crypto 19% +$3
world 3% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +93.8% +75.3% 40% 40% +129.3%
≤30d 40 -72.6% -75.2% 8% 8% -85.8%
≤90d 42 -70.6% -73.4% 7% 7% -84.4%
all 115 +10.7% +0.1% 50% 48% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 48% +3.6%
10% -9.5% 43% -6.4%
15% -18.2% 34% -15.4%
20% -26.2% 28% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -83% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses57 / 58
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)115 / 123
History coverage118d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 19¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 22¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Kyle Daukaus 25¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$9 +444%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $5 +$1 +26%
Bradley Braves vs. Valparaiso Beacons Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Clemson Tigers vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Car Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
New Hampshire Wildcats vs. Binghamton Bearcats Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Chile Open: Cristian Garin vs Sebastian Baez Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Buffalo Bulls Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Celtics vs. Nuggets Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
VMI Keydets vs. Wofford Terriers Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-08? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bryant Bulldogs vs. New Hampshire Wildcats Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Hawks Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Ca Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Pacers vs. Wizards Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-03-06? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Nicholls Colonels vs. Houston Christian Huskies Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14? Jun 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-25? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 71 million views on day 4 Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 73 and 74 million views on day 4 Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 69 and 70 million views on day 4 Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 24, 2026 (ET)? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Morgan State Bears vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 05 $1 $0 -0%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 05 $6 −$4 -61%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 55 million views on day 3 Mar 11 $30 +$52 +174%
Will Port Vale FC win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $5 +$8 +157%
UFC 326: Michael Johnson vs. Drew Dober (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $3 +$3 +104%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $6 +$11 +179%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $5 +$7 +150%
Clemson Tigers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Mar 04 $7 +$4 +66%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $3 +$6 +204%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $4 +$6 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 20¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 19¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 11¢ $4 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY 18¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? A BUY 10¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 28¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $6 9d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Toronto Blue Jays 78¢ $5 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 9d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 9d
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 70d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 70d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 81d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY Yes 2¢ $1 81d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 71 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 18¢ $6 81d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 69 and 70 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 3¢ $2 81d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 73 and 74 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 9¢ $5 81d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $9 92d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 49 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 0¢ $7 97d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 49 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 0¢ $7 97d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 55 million views on day 3 BUY No 36¢ $30 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.91 · official $10.91 · 252 history records