Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3956…55cf other 282 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%21W / 260L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$23
14 days−$31
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$35
sports 25% −$20
culture 9% −$9
politics 9% −$8
economics 7% −$10
crypto 4% −$4
world 3% −$4
tech 1% −$2
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 170 -0.1% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 281 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses21 / 260
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)281 / 282
History coverage149d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 281 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $135 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 23 $448 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 23 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $222 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 22 $450 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 22 $395 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $190 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $493 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $197 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 20 $286 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $343 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $228 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $534 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $533 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $241 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $41 $0 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $198 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $676 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $226 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $203 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $412 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $205 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $213 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $345 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $152 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $344 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $222 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $64 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $351 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $664 −$2 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $592 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $262 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $57 1h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $57 2h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $57 3h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 5h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 7h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 12h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 13h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 14h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 15h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 21h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 23h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $57 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $57 26h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 30h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $58 31h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 37h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 38h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 40h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 42h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 44h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 45h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.65 · official $56.65 (match) · 1520 history records