Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3950…7abc crypto 1061 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (250 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,373 (-7%) realized −$2,373 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%522W / 503L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day250.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$7,447
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (250 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 705 -16.7% -24.6% 42% 42% -45.5%
≤30d 1025 +2.2% -7.6% 51% 51% -27.3%
≤90d 1025 +2.2% -7.6% 51% 51% -27.3%
all 1025 +2.2% -7.6% 51% 51% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover250.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 51% -27.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 51% -34.3%
15% -24.5% 51% -40.6%
20% -31.9% 51% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$49 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$2,373
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses522 / 503
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1025 / 1061
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day250.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1025 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Down 49¢ 50¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$40 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$200 -200%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $30 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $12 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $18 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.30 · official $30.30 (match) · 3500 history records