Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x394f…b4fc world 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%24W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$3
other 24% $0
politics 18% −$1
sports 13% −$10
economics 4% $0
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.7% -10.1% 62% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 +79.9% +62.8% 48% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 72 +28.1% +15.9% 32% 3% -9.5%
all 76 +23.5% +11.7% 32% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.7% 3% -9.9%
10% +1.0% 3% -18.5%
15% -8.7% 1% -26.4%
20% -17.7% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses24 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage522d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 68¢ $35 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $48 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $16 −$2 -11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $37 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $48 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $44 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $75 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $44 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $79 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $4 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $41 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $36 +$2 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $48 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $66 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $5 +$2 +36%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $33 −$1 -4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $71 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $1 $0 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $137 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $33 $0 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $73 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $67 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $36 $0 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $69 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $65 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $72 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $29 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $7 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $5 4h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $5 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 22h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $19 45h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 45h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 45h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 45h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $22 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $29 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $24 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $16 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $37 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $16 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $16 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $6 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $25 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.62 · official $35.62 (match) · 285 history records