Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:16:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x394f…a01c world 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate43%22W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$2
14 days−$12
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$9
sports 36% −$2
other 23% +$1
politics 2% +$1
economics 0% −$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 40% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 29 -0.3% -9.8% 34% 3% -10.3%
≤90d 45 +0.0% -9.5% 40% 7% -9.7%
all 51 -1.5% -10.9% 43% 8% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 8% -10.0%
10% -19.4% 2% -18.6%
15% -27.2% 2% -26.4%
20% -34.3% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses22 / 29
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage540d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 57¢ 97¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $37 −$4 -12%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $4 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $22 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $34 +$1 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $31 +$1 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $116 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $41 −$2 -6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $33 −$7 -22%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $158 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 +11%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $48 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $92 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $30 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $3 $0 +10%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $84 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $41 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $88 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $1 +$1 +96%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $6 −$1 -10%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $17 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $46 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $5 −$1 -28%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $65 +$9 +13%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $326 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $348 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $56 +$1 +2%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $115 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $9 −$5 -53%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $284 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $287 +$2 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $296 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 13 $1 $0 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $1 $0 +1%
Pacific vs. Loyola Marymount Feb 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jeanette Nunez be appointed as the next Florida senator? Feb 04 $10 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $24 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $9 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $37 20h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 6¢ $4 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 5¢ $1 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 5¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $22 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $22 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $10 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $13 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $23 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $36 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $29 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $3 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 64¢ $31 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $39 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $39 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.42 · official $0.00 · 204 history records