Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:04:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x394e…b23a crypto 153 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$64 (-2%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%64W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days−$19
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$127
other 2% +$24
sports 1% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +5.1% -4.9% 75% 75% -4.7%
≤30d 114 -6.9% -15.8% 46% 42% -8.1%
≤90d 145 -14.2% -22.4% 43% 39% -12.0%
all 152 -15.7% -23.7% 42% 37% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 37% -12.5%
10% -31.0% 32% -20.9%
15% -37.7% 26% -28.6%
20% -43.8% 20% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses64 / 88
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)152 / 153
History coverage147d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$14 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$13 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 +$4 +16%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$8 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$19 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $28 +$42 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $48 +$32 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 08 $39 +$31 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 08 $66 −$16 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $51 +$31 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $57 −$37 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 08 $28 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 08 $59 +$28 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 08 $30 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 04 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 04 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 04 $9 +$11 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 04 $43 +$37 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 04 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 04 $76 −$56 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 04 $36 −$36 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 04 $49 +$41 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 04 $34 −$24 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 04 $70 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 04 $101 +$49 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 04 $31 −$11 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 04 $6 −$5 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 04 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 04 $60 +$17 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 04 $31 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 04 $46 +$24 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 04 $48 −$38 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 04 $53 +$47 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 04 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 04 $31 +$39 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 04 $6 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 04 $13 +$7 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 04 $14 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 04 $13 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 04 $53 +$37 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $29 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $25 25h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 62¢ $25 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.74 · official $27.74 (match) · 1056 history records