Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:27:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
39 0x394b…582f crypto 1088 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$196 (+4%) realized +$196 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%562W / 526L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$14
14 days−$5
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$173
weather 0% +$4
other 0% −$3
politics 0% −$2
culture 0% −$1
sports 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -3.9% -13.1% 53% 53% -12.1%
≤30d 611 -3.2% -12.4% 52% 52% -11.7%
≤90d 1088 +2.0% -7.7% 52% 52% -6.6%
all 1088 +2.0% -7.7% 52% 52% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 52% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 52% -15.5%
15% -24.6% 52% -23.7%
20% -32.0% 52% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$196
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses562 / 526
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1088 / 1088
History coverage49d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1088 Trades
no open positions (495 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.09 · official $9.09 (match) · 2206 history records