Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3948…f81b crypto 505 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$130 (+2%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%226W / 278L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$207
sports 31% +$263
other 2% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -29.9% -36.6% 24% 18% -34.2%
≤30d 19 -37.3% -43.3% 21% 16% -42.9%
≤90d 35 -29.5% -36.2% 29% 26% -32.9%
all 504 -0.1% -9.6% 45% 43% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 43% -8.5%
10% -18.3% 42% -17.2%
15% -26.2% 41% -25.2%
20% -33.4% 39% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses226 / 278
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)504 / 505
History coverage155d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 504 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -62%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $8 +$11 +137%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 +$11 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$11 +216%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 09 $4 −$4 -96%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 09 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 09 $5 +$6 +126%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 09 $7 +$10 +141%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 09 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 09 $8 −$7 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 09 $6 −$6 -96%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) May 09 $10 +$13 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 16 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 04 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 04 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 04 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 04 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 04 $5 +$6 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 04 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 04 $4 +$6 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 04 $5 +$7 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 04 $2 +$11 +526%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 04 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 50¢ $9 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $7 4h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 21¢ $2 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 7h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 32¢ $3 10h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $5 10h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 23h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 43¢ $5 23h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 31¢ $5 25h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 30¢ $5 25h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 29h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 50¢ $7 32h
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Spurs 41¢ $5 9d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 21¢ $5 9d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 35¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 1130 history records