Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:40:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3947…09f0 crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$23 (-37%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$22
other 25% −$1
sports 8% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-58.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -53.8% -58.2% 33% 33% -53.5%
≤30d 12 -53.8% -58.2% 33% 33% -53.5%
≤90d 12 -53.8% -58.2% 33% 33% -53.5%
all 12 -53.8% -58.2% 33% 33% -53.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.2% 33% -53.5%
10% -62.2% 17% -58.0%
15% -65.8% 8% -62.0%
20% -69.2% 8% -65.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -78% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Over 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +89%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.94 · official $5.94 (match) · 20 history records