Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3945…4b12 other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$46
politics 15% −$6
economics 8% −$3
sports 8% −$14
culture 2% −$1
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 102 -0.9% -10.3% 11% 6% -9.7%
all 102 -0.9% -10.3% 11% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 6% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 6% -18.4%
15% -26.7% 5% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage91d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $364 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,136 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $275 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $64 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $106 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $349 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $326 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $53 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 19 $269 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $251 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 16 $257 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $256 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $836 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $768 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $277 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $267 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $268 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $262 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $273 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $271 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $279 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 01 $23 $0 +1%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $282 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 28 $548 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $255 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $280 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 24 $279 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 24 $269 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $842 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $274 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $260 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $264 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $793 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $272 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $283 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 13 $265 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 1h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 3h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $61 28h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $61 32h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 4d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $61 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $61 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 8d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $52 14d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $52 14d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $60 15d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $60 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 17d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 18d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 18d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $64 20d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 24d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 24d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $46 24d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $46 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $106 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 319 history records