Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
39 0x3944…bd50 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$37 (+1%) realized +$65 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +90% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +59% what you keep after slip
Net edge+59%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$723per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$4,372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$284
sports 4% +$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+72.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +90.2% +72.1% 100% 100% +55.0%
≤30d 2 +90.2% +72.1% 100% 100% +55.0%
≤90d 2 +90.2% +72.1% 100% 100% +55.0%
all 2 +90.2% +72.1% 100% 100% +55.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +72.1% 100% +55.0%
10% +55.6% 100% +40.1%
15% +40.6% 100% +26.6%
20% +26.8% 100% +14.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +71% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +90% · $-wt +71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$215 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4,372
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$723
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $3,000 $2,980 −$20 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $1,000 $996 −$4 (-0%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $503 +$310 +62%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$121 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $3,022 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $99 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,026 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,372.48 · official $4,372.52 (match) · 11 history records