Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:51:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3940…9e72 sports 621 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$183 (-1%) realized −$176 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%247W / 373L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days+$193
14 days−$43
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$92
other 13% −$61
crypto 1% −$3
politics 1% −$208
world 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +48.7% +34.5% 40% 40% +13.2%
≤30d 36 +35.3% +22.5% 42% 42% -4.0%
≤90d 153 +9.4% -1.0% 44% 43% -7.1%
all 620 -3.6% -12.8% 40% 39% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 39% -10.9%
10% -21.2% 39% -19.4%
15% -28.8% 39% -27.2%
20% -35.8% 37% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$33 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$176
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses247 / 373
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)620 / 621
History coverage234d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 620 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $60 $53 −$7 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 357 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $22 −$21 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$97 +786%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $15 −$4 -26%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $32 +$79 +250%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $26 +$55 +216%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$168 +165%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $242 +$75 +31%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $62 −$61 -99%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $20 +$51 +250%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $95 +$56 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $198 −$196 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $150 −$148 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $31 +$51 +165%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $30 −$2 -5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $31 +$69 +226%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $106 +$69 +65%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 29 $20 +$60 +291%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $36 −$35 -98%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 23 $10 +$10 +97%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 23 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 23 $20 +$69 +335%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $101 +$84 +83%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? May 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Everton FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? May 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? May 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? May 11 $10 +$23 +226%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 May 11 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 11 $10 +$28 +276%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $28 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 16h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $27 41h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $32 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $18 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 31¢ $26 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $83 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 60¢ $29 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $33 7d
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 8d
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 62¢ $95 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $145 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $198 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 14¢ $49 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 59¢ $101 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $62 15d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $28 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 18d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 26¢ $88 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.44 · official $53.44 (match) · 1020 history records