Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:23:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x393f…f582 other 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%10W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% +$1
politics 21% −$3
sports 20% −$3
economics 10% −$1
culture 8% −$2
world 6% −$1
crypto 5% −$1
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 3 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 141 +0.0% -9.5% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses10 / 131
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage160d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 94¢ 93¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $50 −$1 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $236 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $54 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 05 $165 −$1 -1%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 04 $147 $0 +0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 04 $106 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 04 $244 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 03 $108 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $159 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $347 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 28 $269 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $96 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 26 $146 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 26 $177 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 5, 2026 (ET)? Feb 25 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 25 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 23 $111 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 23 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $94 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $168 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $57 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 22 $164 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $57 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 22 $349 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $54 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 22 $221 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Feb 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $116 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $174 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 22 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $121 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $143 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 19 $59 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $109 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 19 $112 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $168 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $33 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $50 1h
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 12d
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 12d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $53 23d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $53 23d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 92¢ $54 31d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 93¢ $17 31d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 93¢ $13 31d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 93¢ $25 31d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 95¢ $42 105d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $43 105d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $47 105d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $30 105d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $17 105d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $47 106d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $47 106d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $47 106d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $47 106d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 106d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $54 107d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $48 107d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $48 107d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 92¢ $48 109d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 92¢ $48 109d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 92¢ $43 109d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 93¢ $44 109d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 109d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 109d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 95¢ $45 109d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 95¢ $45 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.36 · official $49.36 (match) · 537 history records