Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:07:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x393e…7b02 crypto 1494 markets active 5d ago coverage 153d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 153d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$794 (-4%) realized −$794 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%770W / 882L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,355
7 days−$1,427
14 days−$1,405
30 days−$1,405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$368
sports 7% −$50
other 1% −$14
world 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 213 -67.3% -70.4% 14% 12% -76.6%
≤30d 327 -47.3% -52.3% 23% 22% -53.2%
≤90d 516 -32.1% -38.6% 33% 30% -42.2%
all 1652 -11.6% -20.0% 47% 44% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 44% -16.8%
10% -27.6% 41% -24.7%
15% -34.6% 35% -32.0%
20% -41.0% 30% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$794
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses770 / 882
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1652 / 1494
History coverage153d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1652 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 7PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -110%
Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Grok" during earnings call? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bucks vs. Hornets Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Jiangxi Open: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Hanyu Guo Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? Jun 17 $23 −$56 -245%
Clippers vs. Hawks Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Brisbane International: Kamil Majchrzak vs Reilly Opelka Jun 17 $21 −$23 -111%
Colts vs. Steelers Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Jiangxi Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Wizards vs. Bulls Jun 17 $0 +$9 +8253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Cowboys vs. Giants Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. NEC end in a draw? Jun 17 $40 −$43 -108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Islanders vs. Capitals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Bulls Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Warriors vs. Bucks Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Pelicans Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-04? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Temple Owls vs. Villanova Wildcats Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
WTA Finals, Serena Williams Group: Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Duke vs. Clemson Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 4d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins SELL LG Twins 65¢ $38 4d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 66¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 68¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records