Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:08:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3935…c917 sports 152 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$67 (-11%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%53W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$5
14 days−$23
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$63
other 7% −$10
world 4% +$3
crypto 1% −$4
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +10.1% -0.3% 56% 56% +1.8%
≤30d 55 -10.5% -19.0% 45% 45% -19.6%
≤90d 132 -12.7% -21.0% 40% 40% -22.6%
all 132 -12.7% -21.0% 40% 40% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 40% -22.6%
10% -28.6% 40% -30.0%
15% -35.5% 37% -36.8%
20% -41.8% 36% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29.93760186790655% → late 4.581623422234049% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses53 / 79
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions20
Markets (closed)132 / 152
History coverage67d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 43¢ 50¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-14? No 73¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+36%)
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs Ground Zero 93¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-14? No 76¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Mauricio Ruffy 83¢ 81¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Under 58¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) TDK 54¢ 56¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 54¢ 53¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Barbora Krejcikova 72¢ 50¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 31¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 42¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Team Liquid 45¢ 28¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 28¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs illwill 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Rockets Rockets 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Timberwolves 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will EC Juventude vs. AA Ponte Preta end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $2 +$3 +114%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $4 −$1 -30%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $2 +$3 +114%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$3 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 +$3 +109%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $3 +$2 +83%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5) Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $3 −$3 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) Jun 05 $3 −$3 -99%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 03 $3 +$3 +114%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $3 +$3 +90%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-5.5) May 30 $3 +$3 +109%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics May 29 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $3 +$3 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) May 26 $3 +$3 +90%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $3 +$3 +90%
Dallas Wings vs. New York Liberty May 24 $3 +$7 +226%
Portland Fire vs. Toronto Tempo May 24 $3 +$5 +172%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky May 23 $3 +$2 +76%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 23 $3 +$1 +24%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 23 $3 +$1 +44%
Dallas Wings vs. Chicago Sky May 23 $3 +$2 +67%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5) May 23 $3 +$2 +79%
1H Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 23 $3 +$3 +93%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 May 23 $3 +$3 +93%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-5.5) May 23 $3 +$3 +101%
Dallas Wings vs. Atlanta Dream May 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $2 14m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $2 56m
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $2 2h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY TDK 54¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY Ground Zero 93¢ $5 2h
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 76¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie BUY illwill 35¢ $2 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 4h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $4 11h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 46¢ $2 14h
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $4 14h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 83¢ $4 14h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 58¢ $3 15h
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Barbora Krejcikova 72¢ $4 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 43¢ $2 19h
Will EC Juventude vs. AA Ponte Preta end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $4 19h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 23h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $3 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 38¢ $2 24h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 28¢ $2 25h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 46¢ $2 25h
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 54¢ $3 30h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 20¢ $2 30h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 56¢ $3 30h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $0 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $0 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.51 · official $79.51 (match) · 212 history records