Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:33:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
39 0x392d…21a1 crypto 344 markets active 2h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,879 (+6%) realized +$1,034 · open +$845
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate78%259W / 73L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$4,060now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$242
14 days−$17
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% −$39
world 31% +$1,230
other 23% +$57
politics 13% +$345
sports 0% −$26
economics 0% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 12 -12.6% -21.0% 42% 33% -11.5%
≤90d 38 -35.9% -42.0% 37% 24% -9.9%
all 332 +3.3% -6.5% 78% 65% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 65% -7.2%
10% -15.5% 25% -16.0%
15% -23.6% 2% -24.2%
20% -31.1% 2% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$32 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$4,060
Realized+$1,034
Unrealized+$845
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses259 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)332 / 344
History coverage540d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 332 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 61¢ 70¢ $1,373 $1,597 +$224 (+16%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 19¢ 40¢ $382 $815 +$433 (+113%)
Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $446 $496 +$50 (+11%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $372 $398 +$26 (+7%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 80¢ 92¢ $240 $276 +$36 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $102 $107 +$5 (+5%)
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? No 82¢ 96¢ $92 $107 +$15 (+16%)
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? No 80¢ 95¢ $80 $95 +$15 (+19%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+30%)
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $39 $54 +$16 (+40%)
Israel election: will Likud lose seats? Yes 59¢ 84¢ $24 $34 +$10 (+44%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $242 −$242 -100%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 16 $612 +$156 +26%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $251 +$94 +38%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $88 −$25 -28%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $3,321 −$33 -1%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $160 +$2 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Trump say "Braggadocious" in May? Jun 01 $201 +$38 +19%
Will Trump say "Skedaddle" in May? Jun 01 $14 +$2 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $100 −$20 -20%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $30 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $105 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $154 +$30 +20%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $84 −$17 -20%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 18 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,468 +$145 +10%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $2 $0 +17%
Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 Fr May 15 $21 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "RINO" or "Republican in Name Only" in April? May 01 $20 +$43 +218%
Will Trump say "N Word" in April? May 01 $1,042 +$77 +7%
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? Apr 06 $49 −$7 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 06 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 06 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 06 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 06 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte Apr 06 $46 −$46 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $3,121 +$239 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 04 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Trump say "Little Rocket Man" in March? Apr 02 $123 +$17 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 19 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 19 $9 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 19 $17 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 19 $24 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 19 $24 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 19 $24 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 19 $24 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 19 $24 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 19 $24 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Mar 19 $24 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 19 $24 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 19 $24 +$5 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? BUY Yes 17¢ $37 1h
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 69¢ $81 2h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 24¢ $108 13h
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? SELL No 96¢ $356 23h
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? SELL No 96¢ $168 23h
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? SELL No 96¢ $10 26h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 28h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 28h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $117 28h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $240 29h
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? SELL No 96¢ $201 30h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $220 36h
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? SELL No 96¢ $132 42h
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? SELL No 96¢ $29 47h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $225 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $164 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $46 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $16 3d
Israel election: will Likud lose seats? BUY Yes 60¢ $7 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $65 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $74 3d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 25¢ $84 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $17 3d
Israel election: will Likud lose seats? BUY Yes 58¢ $17 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $193 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,060.06 · official $4,060.06 (match) · 1463 history records