Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:52:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x392d…4614 other 22 markets active 4h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$138 (-28%) realized +$98 · open −$236
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate19%4W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$241
other 24% −$10
sports 7% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -6.8% -15.7% 19% 14% +7.0%
≤30d 21 -6.8% -15.7% 19% 14% +7.0%
≤90d 21 -6.8% -15.7% 19% 14% +7.0%
all 21 -6.8% -15.7% 19% 14% +7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 14% +7.0%
10% -23.7% 14% -3.2%
15% -31.1% 14% -12.6%
20% -37.8% 14% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$5 · ×5.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$98
Unrealized−$236
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses4 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage3d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $337 $101 −$236 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 17 $5 −$1 -29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 17 $5 $0 -7%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $5 +$3 +66%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -14%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $5 $0 -10%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$54 +530%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 +$58 +381%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $21 −$16 -77%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $170 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $70 3h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 16¢ $4 3h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL No 13¢ $5 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 3h
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No $4 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 SELL No 32¢ $5 3h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No $7 3h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 21¢ $9 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 25h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 25h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 25h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 19¢ $5 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $97 38h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $5 45h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $5 45h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 12¢ $5 45h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 13¢ $5 45h
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No $5 45h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $5 45h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 20¢ $5 45h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 33¢ $5 45h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 46h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes $5 46h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 47h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 47h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 47h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.17 · official $101.17 (match) · 42 history records