trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 13¢ | 10¢ | $18,954 | $13,407 | −$5,546 (-29%) |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? | Yes | 61¢ | 86¢ | $2,148 | $3,033 | +$885 (+41%) |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? | Yes | 33¢ | 48¢ | $1,392 | $2,069 | +$677 (+49%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | Yes | 5¢ | 6¢ | $500 | $550 | +$50 (+10%) |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? | Yes | 53¢ | 79¢ | $115 | $170 | +$55 (+48%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? | Jun 01 | $2,624 | +$376 | +14% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +14.3% | +3.5% | 100% | 100% | +3.5% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +14.3% | +3.5% | 100% | 100% | +3.5% |
| all | 1 | +14.3% | +3.5% | 100% | 100% | +3.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +3.5% | 100% | +3.5% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -6.4% | 0% | -6.4% |
| 15% | -15.5% | 0% | -15.5% |
| 20% | -23.8% | 0% | -23.8% |