Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x392a…262d
world · 138 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$499 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$683 · open −$1,220
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,135
Realized+$683
Unrealized−$1,220
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses63 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions25
Markets (closed)113 / 138
History coverage76d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 25 History 113 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$328
14 days+$470
30 days+$1,197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 69¢ 76¢ $1,525 $1,683 +$158 (+10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 63¢ 44¢ $2,314 $1,631 −$683 (-29%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 50¢ $985 $742 −$242 (-25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 74¢ 74¢ $744 $738 −$6 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 61¢ 40¢ $976 $648 −$328 (-34%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $616 $610 −$5 (-1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 49¢ 64¢ $257 $333 +$76 (+30%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 18¢ $336 $240 −$95 (-28%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 66¢ $184 $238 +$54 (+29%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 78¢ $192 $232 +$40 (+21%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 52¢ 32¢ $312 $189 −$123 (-39%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 40¢ $128 $162 +$34 (+27%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 69¢ 77¢ $139 $154 +$15 (+11%)
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $90 $100 +$10 (+11%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $90 $99 +$9 (+10%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 50¢ 61¢ $75 $92 +$17 (+22%)
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+2%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 27¢ $57 $53 −$4 (-7%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $59 $40 −$19 (-33%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 57¢ 80¢ $17 $24 +$7 (+39%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $146 $18 −$129 (-88%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 47¢ 36¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-24%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 51¢ 42¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 64¢ 46¢ $6 $5 −$2 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 13 $1,342 −$4 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $171 −$128 -75%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $739 +$5 +1%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $50 −$12 -23%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 13 $32 −$10 -29%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $18 +$4 +23%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 12 $207 +$66 +32%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $642 +$104 +16%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $144 −$8 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $82 +$32 +39%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $71 −$19 -27%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $55 +$31 +56%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $645 +$145 +22%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Jun 09 $19 +$8 +43%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $272 +$28 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $100 +$41 +40%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $100 +$27 +27%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $100 +$18 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $216 +$80 +37%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 04 $103 +$16 +16%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 04 $67 +$10 +15%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $92 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $301 +$53 +18%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 31 $98 −$18 -18%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by May 31, 2026? May 30 $122 +$8 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 30 $120 +$36 +30%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? May 30 $399 −$9 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $65 +$39 +60%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? May 30 $238 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? May 28 $8 +$33 +401%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $874 +$38 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $295 +$111 +38%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 28 $352 +$89 +25%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 27 $100 +$12 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $378 +$192 +51%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 25 $195 −$1 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? May 25 $96 +$5 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? May 25 $76 −$20 -26%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 25 $70 −$31 -44%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $314 +$157 +50%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 25 $11 −$8 -74%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J May 24 $120 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 23 $141 −$34 -24%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 23 $122 −$35 -29%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 22 $108 +$47 +43%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 22 $106 −$26 -24%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? May 20 $107 +$50 +47%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 May 19 $85 +$15 +18%
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30? May 18 $49 +$16 +34%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 17 $63 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 85% −$685
other 7% +$215
politics 4% −$141
finance 3% +$28
economics 1% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 81¢ $1,158 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 34¢ $128 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 9¢ $43 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $108 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $500 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 82¢ $500 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $150 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 80¢ $465 4h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 79¢ $192 4h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 49¢ $61 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 23¢ $23 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $240 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 30¢ $210 9h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 24¢ $47 11h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 11h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $38 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $232 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $108 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $137 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 12h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $23 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $384 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 27¢ $214 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 73¢ $511 14h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $120 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $147 28h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 15¢ $30 34h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $22 34h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $92 36h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $4 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +9.3% -1.1% 67% 56% -3.3%
≤30d 52 +25.3% +13.3% 65% 54% +1.0%
≤90d 113 +0.3% -9.2% 56% 43% -5.0%
all 113 +0.3% -9.2% 56% 43% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 43% -5.0%
10% -17.9% 29% -14.1%
15% -25.9% 17% -22.4%
20% -33.1% 9% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,134.67 · official $8,134.72 (match) · 1052 history records