Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x392a…1bb9 sports 314 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$182 (-1%) realized −$85 · open −$97
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%307W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$21
14 days−$207
30 days−$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$21
other 35% +$31
weather 16% −$146
politics 1% −$57
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 150 -1.6% -11.0% 96% 2% -10.9%
≤90d 313 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 2% -9.9%
all 313 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.9%
10% -18.1% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.0% 1% -26.4%
20% -33.2% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$44 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$85
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses307 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)313 / 314
History coverage64d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 313 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 55¢ $98 $1 −$97 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $310 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $77 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $329 +$1 +0%
Senegal to win the second half? Jun 16 $275 +$1 +0%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $135 $0 +0%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 16 $179 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $229 $0 +0%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $223 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $86 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $109 +$2 +2%
Thomas Meunier: 1+ goals Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $347 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $403 $0 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $115 $0 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $286 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $116 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $396 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $258 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $71 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $62 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $116 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $99 $0 +0%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $300 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $139 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $396 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $68 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $394 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $319 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $111 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $109 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 100¢ $210 1h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 100¢ $100 1h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Jordan 100¢ $100 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $77 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 100¢ $215 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 100¢ $114 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 100¢ $135 10h
Senegal to win the second half? BUY No 100¢ $275 10h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 100¢ $229 28h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 100¢ $170 31h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 99¢ $7 31h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 98¢ $20 31h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 98¢ $26 31h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $179 34h
Thomas Meunier: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $26 34h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 100¢ $86 34h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 Egypt? BUY No 99¢ $5 34h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Egypt 98¢ $80 34h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Egypt 98¢ $29 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 37h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $300 37h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $47 37h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia? BUY No 100¢ $403 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 2d
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $100 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 100¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.98 (match) · 820 history records