Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:56:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x392a…5f87 sports 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$81 (-1%) realized −$69 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate24%15W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$25
14 days+$14
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,048
other 7% +$58
world 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +8.2% -2.1% 25% 25% -2.2%
≤30d 30 -5.5% -14.5% 23% 23% -27.4%
≤90d 62 -17.8% -25.6% 24% 21% -32.9%
all 62 -17.8% -25.6% 24% 21% -32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 21% -32.9%
10% -32.8% 16% -39.3%
15% -39.2% 11% -45.2%
20% -45.2% 10% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$31 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized−$69
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses15 / 47
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions10
Markets (closed)62 / 72
History coverage53d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 92¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+30%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 82¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+15%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 92¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 96¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 40¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-37%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+11%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 46¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-46%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-35%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 +$23 +45%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 +$8 +15%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$32 +1290%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$24 +468%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $190 −$5 -3%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $100 +$14 +14%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 12 $203 −$11 -5%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $201 −$178 -88%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $124 +$39 +32%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $171 −$26 -15%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $319 −$1 -0%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $16 −$6 -37%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $565 −$17 -3%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $486 −$5 -1%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $453 +$28 +6%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $20 −$20 -100%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Guernsey vs Sweden May 16 $25 +$16 +64%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $81 −$18 -22%
T20 Series Pakistan vs Zimbabwe, Women: Pakistan vs Zimbabwe May 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $467 −$2 -0%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $213 −$110 -52%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $555 −$450 -81%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $776 +$66 +8%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $218 −$75 -34%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $203 −$100 -49%
ODI Series Pakistan vs Zimbabwe, Women: Pakistan vs Zimbabwe May 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $203 +$12 +6%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $252 −$73 -29%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $203 −$2 -1%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $339 +$91 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 94¢ $73 29m
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 36m
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $58 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 21h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $27 21h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 23h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 38h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 38h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 38h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $29 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 43h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 44h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 46h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 47h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 47h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 47h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 2d
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 82¢ $50 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 3d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.29 · official $358.26 (match) · 247 history records