Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:09:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3929…d2de world 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$2
other 10% $0
finance 8% −$1
weather 3% −$10
politics 3% $0
sports 3% +$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 13 -1.2% -10.6% 23% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 13 -1.2% -10.6% 23% 0% -10.1%
all 25 -9.6% -18.2% 40% 4% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 4% -11.1%
10% -26.0% 0% -19.6%
15% -33.2% 0% -27.4%
20% -39.7% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage473d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 93¢ 92¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $88 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $22 +$1 +4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $24 −$2 -7%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $47 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $25 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 -8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $42 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $43 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Luis Arce win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Dec 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 26 $7 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on March 3? Mar 03 $20 −$10 -52%
Will Trump say 'Mexico' 5+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Sharks vs. Sabres Mar 03 $17 +$3 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $42 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $17 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $25 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $8 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $34 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $20 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $3 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $1 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $15 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $8 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $47 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $47 28h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $24 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $19 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $23 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $20 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $43 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $47 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.62 · official $41.62 (match) · 76 history records