Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:04:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3929…acf3 crypto 477 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23 (+1%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate86%412W / 65L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$14
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -9.4% -18.1% 50% 50% -7.4%
≤30d 12 -3.1% -12.4% 58% 50% -6.6%
≤90d 477 -0.8% -10.3% 86% 43% -9.1%
all 477 -0.8% -10.3% 86% 43% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 43% -9.1%
10% -18.8% 12% -17.8%
15% -26.7% 3% -25.8%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses412 / 65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)477 / 477
History coverage81d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 477 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $46 −$42 -92%
XRP Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $31 −$3 -10%
XRP Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $94 +$15 +16%
XRP Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $39 −$22 -57%
XRP Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $90 −$4 -4%
XRP Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $76 +$22 +29%
XRP Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $197 +$42 +22%
XRP Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $29 +$6 +21%
XRP Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $18 +$6 +33%
XRP Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $22 −$4 -19%
XRP Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $35 +$5 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 05 $9 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 31 $9 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 31 $3 +$2 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 31 $9 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 31 $4 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 31 $4 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 31 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 31 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 31 $9 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 31 $4 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 31 $9 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 31 $4 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 31 $14 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 31 $4 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 30 $8 +$2 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 30 $4 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 30 $4 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 5¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 66¢ $5 13h
XRP Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 70¢ $4 13h
XRP Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 73¢ $4 13h
XRP Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 70¢ $6 13h
XRP Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 51¢ $8 13h
XRP Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 51¢ $8 13h
XRP Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 52¢ $11 13h
XRP Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 88¢ $10 32h
XRP Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 21¢ $16 32h
XRP Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 25¢ $11 32h
XRP Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 26¢ $10 32h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 77¢ $6 44h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 77¢ $5 44h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 77¢ $11 44h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 77¢ $4 44h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 77¢ $6 44h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 77¢ $11 44h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 77¢ $3 44h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 77¢ $8 44h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 77¢ $11 44h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 77¢ $11 44h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 26¢ $8 46h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 44¢ $4 47h
XRP Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 44¢ $1 2d
XRP Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 45¢ $4 2d
XRP Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 46¢ $3 2d
XRP Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 42¢ $2 2d
XRP Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 44¢ $11 2d
XRP Up or Down on June 13? SELL Down 16¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1573 history records