Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:05:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3927…cbf4 crypto 457 markets active 5d ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$476 (+1%) realized +$476 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%237W / 509L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day74.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 46d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,209
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 333 -82.3% -84.0% 6% 5% -87.4%
≤30d 569 -45.3% -50.5% 26% 24% -56.2%
≤90d 746 -32.0% -38.5% 32% 31% -45.6%
all 746 -32.0% -38.5% 32% 31% -45.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.5% 31% -45.6%
10% ← realistic here -44.4% 30% -50.8%
15% -49.8% 29% -55.5%
20% -54.7% 29% -59.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$99 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$476
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses237 / 509
Open positions0
Markets (closed)746 / 457
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$101
Trades / day74.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 746 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $336 −$336 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $288 −$288 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $184 −$184 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $192 −$192 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $241 −$241 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $30 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $43 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $39 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $75 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $523 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $17 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $207 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $672 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $75 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $75 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records