Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:18:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3927…46a8 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 674d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$17
sports 34% −$2
other 10% +$1
economics 6% $0
world 3% $0
crypto 0% +$6
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
all 23 -4.4% -13.5% 43% 30% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 30% -10.0%
10% -21.8% 22% -18.6%
15% -29.4% 9% -26.5%
20% -36.3% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

674d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage674d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USD/CAD hit 1.70 (High) in 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 22 $70 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $70 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 22 $122 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $140 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $70 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $304 $0 -0%
Will CRA win 173+ seats in the Japanese snap election? Jan 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple acquire Mistral by December 31? Jan 24 $6 $0 -1%
Axiom daily fees above $5M in 2025? Jan 24 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Apollo Global Management (APO) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 27 $2 +$1 +37%
Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the fourth most Nov 27 $4 +$1 +34%
Will Trump sign an NIL executive order by September 1? Jul 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3AM ET Jul 25 $6 +$4 +71%
Will another NBA All Star get traded before the deadline? Jun 27 $4 −$1 -25%
Will Andrew Tate tweet less than 120 times Jan 17-24? Feb 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ding Liren win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? Jan 18 $2 $0 +16%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 11 $739 −$1 -0%
Will West Ham vs. Everton end in a draw? Dec 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Annual inflation above 2.4% in October? Dec 10 $1 $0 +27%
Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be proven in Q3 2024? Oct 29 $1 $0 +0%
ChatGPT integration with iPhone before October? Oct 29 $1 $0 +18%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 24 $548 −$13 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $70 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $70 1h
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $61 1h
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $61 3d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $61 3d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $61 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $70 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 3d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 51d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $70 51d
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $70 51d
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $70 53d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 53d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $69 53d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 53d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 53d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $153 106d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $152 106d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $151 106d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $152 106d
Will USD/CAD hit 1.70 (High) in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1 135d
Will USD/CAD hit 1.70 (High) in 2026? SELL No $0 135d
Will USD/CAD hit 1.70 (High) in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1 135d
Will CRA win 173+ seats in the Japanese snap election? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 149d
Will Apple acquire Mistral by December 31? BUY No 97¢ $3 207d
Will Apple acquire Mistral by December 31? SELL No 91¢ $3 207d
Will Apple acquire Mistral by December 31? BUY No 96¢ $3 207d
Will Apollo Global Management (APO) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 232d
Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the fourth most BUY No 65¢ $2 275d
Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the fourth most SELL No 60¢ $1 275d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.04 · official $1.04 (match) · 69 history records