Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:59:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3922…0670 crypto 1386 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 116d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$691 (-2%) realized −$694 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate70%1003W / 433L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day26.1pace
Fees−$298est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,311
7 days−$1,582
14 days−$2,485
30 days−$1,141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$742
sports 33% +$35
other 17% −$798
politics 7% +$500
world 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 155 -39.2% -45.0% 41% 14% -27.5%
≤30d 709 -7.3% -16.1% 68% 31% -12.8%
≤90d 721 -8.1% -16.8% 67% 31% -12.4%
all 1436 -5.3% -14.3% 70% 39% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 39% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 10% -20.0%
15% -30.0% 4% -27.7%
20% -36.9% 3% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$18 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$694
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses1003 / 433
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$298
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1436 / 1386
History coverage117d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1436 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 153 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -1047%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $129 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 5h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.81 · official $1.96 (match) · 3500 history records