Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:15:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
39 0x3920…23e7 sports 1227 markets active 1h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,873 (+2%) realized +$7,230 · open −$357
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%646W / 576L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$1,929est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$411now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,773
7 days+$3,350
14 days+$6,037
30 days+$13,106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$6,523
other 0% +$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +14.8% +3.8% 63% 63% +24.9%
≤30d 83 +3.4% -6.5% 57% 57% +18.5%
≤90d 356 +3.8% -6.1% 53% 53% +0.7%
all 1222 +0.5% -9.0% 53% 53% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 53% -7.7%
10% -17.7% 51% -16.5%
15% -25.7% 46% -24.6%
20% -33.0% 42% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$232 vs −$248 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$411
Realized+$7,230
Unrealized−$357
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses646 / 576
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$1,929
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1222 / 1227
History coverage194d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 57¢ 45¢ $500 $395 −$105 (-21%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies 35¢ $268 $16 −$252 (-94%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Under 48¢ 41¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $123 +$101 +83%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 16 $733 −$720 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $769 −$760 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $530 +$253 +48%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $1,237 +$983 +79%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 16 $351 +$490 +140%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 16 $506 +$341 +67%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 16 $628 +$479 +76%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $811 +$630 +78%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $765 +$537 +70%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 Jun 14 $96 +$73 +76%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $61 +$48 +79%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $506 −$500 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $1,142 +$1,154 +101%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $446 +$370 +83%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $633 −$625 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $56 −$55 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 10 $380 +$267 +70%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 10 $405 +$262 +65%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $484 +$529 +109%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 10 $669 +$489 +73%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 10 $684 +$480 +70%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 10 $784 +$507 +65%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 10 $665 +$1,147 +172%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 09 $506 −$500 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $607 −$600 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $66 +$52 +79%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 04 $431 +$356 +83%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 04 $457 +$426 +93%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $506 −$500 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $203 −$200 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 May 30 $25 −$25 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $405 −$400 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 30 $304 +$188 +62%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 30 $354 +$211 +60%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 30 $664 +$506 +76%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $739 +$478 +65%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) May 29 $1,033 −$1,020 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 29 $240 −$236 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 28 $279 −$275 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 May 27 $56 +$50 +90%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 27 $101 +$84 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $273 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 42¢ $733 25h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $769 28h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 54¢ $123 28h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 67¢ $530 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $20 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $1,237 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $811 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $25 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 58¢ $765 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 BUY Under 56¢ $96 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 57¢ $506 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 56¢ $608 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $61 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $61 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $1,142 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $33 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $380 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 53¢ $33 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $633 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $506 7d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 50¢ $56 8d
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 41¢ $351 8d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $506 8d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 56¢ $628 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $484 9d
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 58¢ $684 10d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 57¢ $669 10d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $380 10d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $784 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $410.91 · official $410.82 (match) · 2260 history records