Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:42:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x391d…fdc6 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$71 (+6%) realized +$73 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$133
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -3.7% -12.8% 58% 53% -20.1%
≤30d 19 -3.7% -12.8% 58% 53% -20.1%
≤90d 19 -3.7% -12.8% 58% 53% -20.1%
all 19 -3.7% -12.8% 58% 53% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 53% -20.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 26% -27.7%
15% -28.8% 26% -34.7%
20% -35.8% 21% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$56 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$73
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Chicago Cubs 25¢ 21¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 28 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 28 $7 +$4 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 28 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 28 $181 −$134 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $203 +$25 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $52 +$52 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $130 +$94 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$91 +346%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 25¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $11 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $15 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $8 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $16 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $15 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $7 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $16 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.40 · official $8.40 (match) · 52 history records