Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:58:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
39 0x391d…665a other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 229d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$3
economics 3% −$2
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 +2.9% -6.9% 67% 0% -9.7%
all 8 -29.9% -36.6% 50% 0% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.6% 0% -11.2%
10% -42.6% 0% -19.7%
15% -48.2% 0% -27.5%
20% -53.3% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)8 / 15
History coverage229d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-07-01? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $216 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Nov 25 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 20 $4 −$2 -53%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 20 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 1h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 1h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $216 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $216 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 45d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $10 216d
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $1 216d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 220d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 229d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 229d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 229d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 229d
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? BUY No 95¢ $1 229d
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 229d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.82 · official $215.82 (match) · 25 history records