Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3919…b3f3 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$64 (-35%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$64
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 -19.8% -27.4% 50% 50% -42.2%
≤90d 14 -19.8% -27.4% 50% 50% -42.2%
all 14 -19.8% -27.4% 50% 50% -42.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 50% -42.2%
10% -34.4% 43% -47.7%
15% -40.7% 36% -52.8%
20% -46.5% 29% -57.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage13d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) 9z 67¢ 66¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $13 −$3 -24%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $12 +$8 +70%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $10 +$9 +86%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Birmingham: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 03 $10 +$5 +54%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $16 −$16 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $6 +$1 +12%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $7 +$3 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $10 +$3 +32%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $13 +$7 +56%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 67¢ $1 1h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 67¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 44¢ $10 7d
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 44¢ $10 9d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $10 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 66¢ $13 9d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 59¢ $12 10d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 57¢ $6 11d
Birmingham: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen SELL Otto Virtanen 100¢ $16 11d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 53¢ $10 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 62¢ $10 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 61¢ $6 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska SELL Maja Chwalinska 63¢ $6 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 55¢ $6 11d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $10 12d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals BUY Miami Marlins 72¢ $7 12d
Birmingham: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 64¢ $10 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $13 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 75¢ $10 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea SELL Mirra Andreeva 100¢ $20 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Elina Svitolina 46¢ $23 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Elina Svitolina 45¢ $9 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Elina Svitolina 45¢ $2 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Elina Svitolina 45¢ $2 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Elina Svitolina 45¢ $1 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Elina Svitolina 45¢ $9 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea BUY Mirra Andreeva 64¢ $13 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.91 · official $3.91 (match) · 31 history records