Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:38:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3916…6fd7 crypto 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%9W / 62L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,564
politics 1% $0
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-45.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 71 -40.1% -45.8% 13% 0% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.8% 0% -16.2%
10% -51.0% 0% -24.2%
15% -55.7% 0% -31.6%
20% -60.0% 0% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$560) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -66% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$52 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses9 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage186d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 27? Jan 27 $1 −$1 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 5PM ET Jan 21 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 20 Jan 21 $500 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 8AM ET Jan 20 $193 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 19? Jan 20 $200 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 19, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 20 $490 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 6AM ET Jan 19 $493 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 17 Jan 19 $90 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jan 19 $601 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 17, 9AM ET Jan 17 $601 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 16? Jan 17 $210 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 17 $478 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 5AM ET Jan 16 $478 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on January 15? Jan 16 $125 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 15, 2AM ET Jan 16 $563 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 14 Jan 15 $333 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 15 $355 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 6AM ET Jan 14 $355 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 13? Jan 14 $170 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - January 13, 4AM ET Jan 14 $517 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 12 Jan 13 $330 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jan 13 $356 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 5AM ET Jan 12 $686 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 5-11? Jan 12 $125 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 12 $560 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 10 $686 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 9? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 09 $600 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 8? Jan 08 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 08 $600 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 7? Jan 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 07 $600 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 6? Jan 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 06 $600 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 5? Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 05 $600 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 December 29-January 4? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 03 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 2? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jan 02 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 1? Jan 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 01 $600 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on December 3 Dec 31 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 30, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Dec 31 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on December 30 Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Dec 30 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on December 29 Dec 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Dec 29 $600 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 28? Dec 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $180 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $180 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 27? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 138d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 139d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 20 BUY No 100¢ $500 145d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 19? BUY No 100¢ $200 147d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 17 BUY No 98¢ $90 148d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 16? BUY No 99¢ $210 150d
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on January 15? BUY No 100¢ $125 151d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 14 BUY No 100¢ $333 151d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $170 153d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 12 BUY No 100¢ $330 153d
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $125 155d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 9? BUY No 0¢ $1 156d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 8? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 158d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 158d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 6? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 160d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 5? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 160d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 December 29-January 4? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 162d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 163d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 1? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 165d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on December 3 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 166d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on December 30 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 166d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on December 29 BUY Yes 1¢ $1 167d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 28? BUY No 0¢ $1 168d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 24? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 172d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 2 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 174d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on December 2 BUY Yes 2¢ $1 174d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on December 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 177d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records