Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:11:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3915…552c crypto 791 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$192 (-6%) realized −$192 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%315W / 476L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day49.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$87
14 days−$105
30 days−$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$312
other 1% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 -2.1% -11.4% 44% 44% -25.6%
≤30d 791 -9.1% -17.8% 40% 39% -20.5%
≤90d 791 -9.1% -17.8% 40% 39% -20.5%
all 791 -9.1% -17.8% 40% 39% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 39% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 39% -28.1%
15% -32.8% 38% -35.1%
20% -39.4% 36% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$192
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses315 / 476
Open positions0
Markets (closed)791 / 791
History coverage30d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day49.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 791 Trades
no open positions (457 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$5 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$6 +289%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$18 +417%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$6 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1756 history records